Euro 2008: Spain v Italy Betting Tips

Spain and Italy have taken 2 very contrasting routes to this, the last quarter final of Euro 2008. Whilst Spain coach Luis Aragonés was able to rest 10 players in his side’s 2-1 win over Greece, the Italians had to pull a result out of the bag against old foes France, in order to ensure their qualification from Group C.

Alongside the Dutch, Spain were the most impressive team in the Group stages, and if the form guide is anything to go by then Russia’s win over Holland last night puts the Spanish clearly ahead of Italy tonight. Spain trounced Russia 4-1 in their opener but personally I think the scoreline flattered the Spanish and the Russians were without influential playmaker Arshavin for that one.

That’s not to say I don’t rate Spain – I do. I’m just not convinced about the hype that has engulfed them and saw them become favourites for the title early last week. Torres and Villa have been superb and look a handful for any defence but it’ll be a sterner test for them tonight against a defence that have been there and done it. This is another level for Spain and if they can come through this one then they can definitely be considered favourites to win the tournament.

Italy have not hit anywhere near top gear yet. Questions remain as to whether this team are actually capable of doing so. But their big tournament experience makes them a very dangerous proposition for the Spanish. They’ve rode their luck in qualifying through the Group but every team needs the breaks if they’re going to progress. But the Italians will know that they’ve earned the right to be there tonight and those tough games in Group C may mean they’re more prepared than their opponents for tonight’s battle.

Roberto Donadoni will be without Rino Gattuso and the influential Andrea Pirlo through suspension. A lot will depend on whether Cassano can replicate his Sampdoria form and if the much maligned Luca Toni can find his scoring boots. He’s looked sluggish and out of sorts but you can’t expect that he’ll go through the whole tournament without a goal. He’s 13/2 (888 Sport, Boylesports, Blue Sq, Paddy Power, SkyBet, Sportingbet, Totesport) to score first tonight and is 12/5 (Paddy Power) to score at anytime – that might be worth a look.

I think it’ll be Italy that progress to face Russian in the semi-final and here’s a few reasons why;

• It’s not about how you start but about how you finish – No team ever wins a tournament in their first game. Spain peaked in their 4-1 win over Russia but have not recaptured that form in the other two games. Italy are past masters at improving throughout tournaments so expect them to gradually get better
• Lightning does strike twice (or maybe four times) - An incredible statistic is that Spain have lost 3 times in the last 22 years on penalty shoot-outs on 22nd June. Will history repeat itself yet again? Italy are 9/1 (Boylesports) to win on pens.
• History favours the Italians – Spain appear to have a mental block when it comes to beating Italy in competitive matches. They haven’t done so since a 2-0 win at the 1920 Olympic Games – their only win in 9.
• ‘Resting’ players hasn’t worked - In the previous 3 quarter finals this week the teams that topped their group and chose to rest players in their final games have all gone out. Perhaps momentum has been lost and it is something that Spain will need to be wary of having played reserves against Greece.

So it’s Italy for me. 9/4 (SkyBet, VCBet) to win in 90 minutes is very tempting. They’re 11/10 (Bet Direct, Betfred, Ladbrokes, Stan James) to qualify from the tie and that looks a slightly safer option. I might l also have a little nibble at that 9/1 (Boylesports) penalty shoot-out win.

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