Rangers v Celtic: Old Firm Betting Preview

Saturday sees the first of a triple-header of Old Firm match ups in the next 2 months. Circumstance have conspired to mean that the second Glasgow derby of the season comes almost 3 months after it’s scheduled date and hopefully it’ll be worth the wait.

Under-pressure Celtic boss, Gordon Strachan knows that an Ibrox defeat more or less hands the title to the blue half of the city. A win however, would see the Bhoys top of the table on goal difference this time tomorrow (albeit Rangers will have a game in hand). As for Walter Smith he’ll be hoping he can continue his impressive record over Strachan since his return to Glasgow. So far Smith has won all three duels between the two and the bookies seem to think he’ll make it four in a row tomorrow.

Some of the fire has disappeared from these games in recent years but the controversial withdrawal of four Rangers players from Wednesday’s Scotland team and the apparent forced withdrawal by the SFA of Celtic’s Barry Robson may well add a little spice to the occasion as Celtic adopt a siege mentality. That attitude has snowballed since the first game of the season, where Celtic had 9 players booked by referee Mike McCurry virtually paralysing them on the way to a 3-0 defeat. They have a point to prove this time around.

It’s widely accepted that of the two teams Celtic have more flair and varied goalscoring threat, while Rangers are much more robust and hard to beat, although they have picked up surprisingly few bookings for a team that’s regarded as physical. But it’s too simplistic to suggest it’ll be just brain versus brawn.

Celtic have added man-mountain Bobo Balde to their squad. He won’t start, although maybe he should do in order to offer Celtic a more physical presence. Other questions will be asked of Gordon Strachan’s team selection ahead of the game. Will he go with luxury in Shunsuke Nakmura or will he favour the good old Scottish dig of Barry Robson. And what will his pairing up front be? Georgios Samaras has done little wrong since his arrival from Man City but still hasn’t been able to force a regular start ahead of McDonald and Vennegoor of Hesselink. Whatever team takes to the field, Celtic need big performances from their big players.

It’s unlikely that any of Rangers’ ‘injured’ foursome will be missing from the starting line-up come 12.30 despite reports of late fitness tests. Other than that Daniel Cousin is the only player who will definitely miss out for the Gers. Boss Smith is likely to stick with his tried and trusted 4-5-1 formation even though they’re the home team. Why change a successful formula right? I suspect they’ll start with Darcheville up front, with McCulloch and Ferguson expected to get up in support. Following the departure of Alan Hutton to Spurs in January, Kirk Broadfoot and Steven Whittaker have vied for the right-back berth, with the former St. Mirren man being favoured more often than not. Tomorrow however, I think the Gers will go with Whittaker to counter the attacking threat of Celtic’s star man Aiden McGeady. He’s more likely to force McGeady to defend as much as he attacks and his pace will be a match for the Irishman.

So what about the betting?

They say the form book goes out the window in his one but the bookies don’t seem to think so. Unsurprisingly, Rangers are firm favourites at 5/4 (Ladbrokes, PartyBets, VCBet) whilst Celtic fans will fancy the 9/4 (Centrebet, VCBet). Personally I can’t see Rangers getting beat in this one. The Asian Handicap split is set at 0, -0.5 which means that if the game ends in a stalemate you’d get half your stake back. Bet365 have Rangers at 39/40 and that looks a sensible option to me.

It’s likely to be a tight affair I think and in the Over/Under market it’s no surprise that Unders is shortest price with the bookies at 4/5 (BetDirect, Betfred, Stan James). This seems most likely to me.

If the last derby is anything to go by then Bet365’s 8/13 on there being over 5.5 cards looks like a licence to print money. There were twice that amount last time round and I think I’ll have some of that.

Let me know how you think the game will go and what your tips are.

Good Luck!

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