Carling Cup Final Betting: Spurs v Chelsea

Betting, Bookmakers, Fixed Odds, Football | jimmyhillsbeard | February 24, 2008 at 10:55 am

The first piece of silverware of the season is up for grabs today when Tottenham Hotspur face up to Avram Grant’s Chelsea at Wembley.

When Juande Ramos arrived at the Lane he brought with him a tremendous cup pedigree, having lifted the UEFA Cup in successive seasons with Sevilla (as well as a Copa del Rey) and he’s made his mark in England already, albeit he only had to navigate Spurs through a two-legged semi-final. In the same way that Ramos garnered his players to rise to the occasion for that magical victory over Arsenal, he’ll have to convince them that today they can be a better team than their Galactico-esque London rivals. Spurs could have done with a morale-boosting win against Slavia on Thursday but as it was their old frailties returned to haunt them and at times their UEFA Cup progression looked in the balance. But they held on and Ramos’s dream of another tilt at UEFA’s second prize lives on. At least in the UEFA Cup, Spurs won’t need to face any of the big four from England. Outwith that semi-final win over the Gunners, Spurs tend to struggle against the big guns and have an awful recent record against today’s opponents. This must be taken into consideration if you’re thinking about having a punt on Tottenham.

It would be a major surprise if today’s Chelsea line-up didn’t include Messrs Terry and Lampard. Both are considered ‘doubtful’ for the final but I can’t see either of them missing out. I think Avram Grant took a little gamble by leaving them out against Olympiakos on Wednesday to give them every chance of playing today so it looks like a full-strength squad that Grant has to choose from – and that’s a frightening prospect. The Blues are chasing an unprecedented quadruple and today’s trophy would represent the first, albeit smallest piece of that mythical jigsaw. Chelsea are also aiming to become the first team to retain the trophy since Forest managed it in 1990 – their big game players have been there, done it and bought the t-shirt.

So how will the game play out? Well a lot will depend on individual battles across the pitch. Firstly, will Ramos go with Cerny or the much-maligned Robinson who returned on Thursday between the sticks?

In Berbatov and Keane, Spurs have a strike partnership that can trouble any defense in the land and today’s stage is one that the Bulgarian should thrive on. A lot will depend on the Lennon v Cole battle out on the wing as the two England internationals square up to each other. Lennon will need to get some joy down that right wing if Spurs are to success, but I just think that he might struggle on the expanse of Wembley and that Cole has his number.

In midfield, Chelsea are just too strong for me. Any one of Lampard, Essien, Cole, Ballack, Malouda, Wright-Phillips, Makalele, Obi or Sidwell would walk into the Spurs team at the moment and some of the aforementioned won’t even be stripped for action this afternoon. In O’Hara, Huddlestone and Jenas, Spurs have huge potential but that’s all it is at the moment and I fear they’ll be overrun today.

Up front Chelsea are likely to go with Drogba and Anelka, a potent combination of strength and pace, with not a bad eye for goal too. It’s a deadly duo and if they’re on their game could run the Spurs defence ragged.

Man for man, it has to be Chelsea. Not only to they have the strongest starting eleven but they’ll have players on the bench that can come on and influence th game if need be.

So how to the bookies rate their chances? Unsurprisingly Chelsea are clear favourites at odds of 11/10 (Bet365, Boylesports, Coral, Ladbrokes, NPBet, Paddy Power, Skybet, William Hill) and Spurs are considered the underdogs priced at 14/5 (Centrebet, VCBet).

Looking at this logically, if this was a home game for Chelsea you would have to think that their odds would be much shorter, throw into the mix the fact that the wide open spaces of Wembley may be more suited to Chelsea then 11/10 looks a great price. If you want to squeeze even more value out of the bookies the you can also back Chelsea to win on the Asian Handicap with -0.5 of a start at 28/25 with Canbet. This is effectively the same bet as backing them to win at slightly better odds than 11/10.

It seems you can bet on almost anything in a game these days, from the time of the first corner to the number of times the woodwork will be hit. But a few old favourties might be worth a look today; Didier Drogba has won Man of the Match in his last two appearances in Wembley finals and is 7/1 (Ladbrokes) to pick up the award today again. Other potential contenders in the Chelsea ranks include Lampard (9/1 Bet365), Joe Cole (11/1 BlueSq) and Ballack (14/1 BlueSq, William Hill). If Spurs are to lift the trophy they’ll probably need their defence to be at their best and Woodgate (25/1 Bet365, Ladbrokes) King (25/1 Bet365, Ladbrokes) and Hutton (40/1 BlueSq, Ladbrokes) could be outsiders that are worth a look.

In the first goalscorer market it looks like the usual suspects who will deliver the goods; Drogba and Anelka both lead the field at 6/1 (Ladbrokes, William Hill) with Berbatov (8/1 Ladbrokes, Coral) and Keane (8/1 BetDirect, Ladbrokes, William Hill, Stan James) leading the pack for Spurs. Further down the list Carvalho at 40/1 (Coral) is always a threat from set pieces as is Michael Dawson (50/1 BetDirect, Ladbrokes, William Hill, Stan James) if selected. Personally I think the 2/1 (Ladbrokes) on offer for Drogba to score at any time looks a good shout.

Its a Chelsea win for me then, and I’ll be taking the 28/25 at Canbet. I’ll also have a small wager on Drogba to complete a hat-trick of Man of the Match awards at 7/1 (Ladbrokes). To do so he’ll need to get on the scoresheet so I’ll have a bit of the 2/1 (Ladbrokes) on him scoring at anytime.

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