Bet of the Day: Go for Goals in Holland

Bets, Betting, Bookmakers, Fixed Odds, Football | jimmyhillsbeard | December 27, 2007 at 6:21 pm

There’s not much football action today so we’re off to Holland in search of a win. I’ve had a look at the 5 games there tonight and the stand out bet seems to be in the Utrecht v Excelsior match. According to BetDevil (a great little site for stats) the probability of there being over 2.5 goals in this one stands at a staggering 92%. Yes 92% – I don’t think I’ve ever seen it as high as that before. When you look at the two teams recent games you can start to see why…

In Excelsior’s last 7 outings there’s been 29 goals, an average of over 4 a game – only one of them was under 2.5 goals. In Utrecht’s last 6 matches there’s been a total of 30 goals, that’s 5 a game – and all have been over 2.5 goals. This season so far Utrecht average 3.82 goals in each game and Excelsior average 3.75 each game. All the stats point towards over 2.5 goals in this one – however, one note of caution – in the last four meeting between the two sides, only one has resulted in over 2.5 goals and that was back in 2003.

Given the probability (from BetDevil) at 92% versus the best odds at the bookies of 47/100 (I worked out that this equates to a 64% probability as far they are concerned) the odds are stacked heavily in our favour therefore this is a must have bet.

Selection: Over 2.5 goals in Utrecht v Excelsior in Eredivisie. £132.75 @ 47/100 at Centrebet.