UEFA Champions League Betting Preview – Matchday 5, Wednesday 28th Nov

Betting, Bookmakers, Fixed Odds, Football, General Posts, Tipsters | jimmyhillsbeard | November 28, 2007 at 2:23 pm

Hopefully we can follow on from last night’s success (shame Lyon on only managed a draw with Barca) with tonight’s round of fixtures. Every group is in the balance tonight, with each team having something to play for so it should make for a great evening.

We might as well start at the beginning; in Group A, Liverpool host a Porto side who have yet to taste defeat in the League and Europe this season. This is a must win game for the Reds in order to keep their qualification hopes alive. They were rampant at St. James Park at the weekend when they disposed of Newcastle 3-0 (and that scoreline flattered the Magpies) so if they continue that form then they should be good enough to beat Porto. But that’s the problem with Liverpool, too often they look inconsistent and out of sorts. They remain unbeaten in the Premier League, but 6 draws in 13 games suggests they’re not quite firing on all cylinders. Sure, European nights at Anfield are truly special but Porto will be no pushovers either – remember a draw for them tonight more or less secures a last 16 berth. At 4/9 Liverpool are just way too short, those are the kind of odds you’d get on Liverpool beating the likes of West Ham, Bolton or Fulham and I reckon Porto are head and shoulders above any of those teams so I won’t be backing the home win. In what could be a tight affair, it might pay to side with Porto on the Asian Handicap. They can be backed with a goal of start (+1) at 6/5 with Canbet – that means that even if they lose by a single goal you’ll get your money back.

The other game in the group is Besiktas v Marseille in Turkey. Since defeating Liverpool back in October Besiktas have won just 1 game and it will be interesting to see how they respond to the 8-0 defeat at the hands of the Reds on Matchday 4. Marseille on the other hand seem to have hit a bit of form in Ligue 1, recently beating French champions Lyon away from home, although they still languish in 14th position. The form suggests Marseille might just shade this one although away wins are difficult to achieve in the Champions League. 7/4 (Bet365, BetDirect, Canbet, Skybet) is a decent price and might be one to add to accumulators.

Chelsea are in Norway for their Group B match against Rosenborg and the bookies seem to think this one is foregone conclusion. The Blues are best-priced at 8/13 with Boylesports but again, I think thats way too short. There is a lot riding on ties at this stage of the competition and the games are often tight with teams as keen to keep things tight at they back as they are to press on and score at the other end, so for me there might be value in looking to the Asian Handicap market again. Rosenborg are a good solid unit and have punched above their weight in the competition thus far. They gained a creditable draw at Stamford Bridge on Matchday 1 and have followed that up with back-to-back wins against Valencia. So i think they’ll make it tough for Chelsea tonight. If I was forced into a bet I’d be looking to back Rosenborg with a goal start (+1) at 79/100 with Paddy Power but I think this one will be a no bet for me.

Qualification is out of Valencia’s hands so they best they can do is try to win their tow remaining games and hope other results fall in their favour. They’ve not been showing the greatest form of late in La Liga and sit a 6th in the table. Schalke also sit 6th in the Bundesliga but have won just 5 of 14 so far. Its difficult to pick a winner when two out of form teams meet but I’d need to side with Valencia at home. 4/5 at Bet365 just about makes them backable.

It seems to be all about the battle for 2nd place in Group C. Real Madrid are currently 3 points clear of the pack and a point at Werder Bremen tonight would virtually see them through. Domestically the Germans appear to be flying and 6 wins out of 7 looks like great form, but dig a little deeper and you’ll find that they haven’t played too many of the top teams in that period. Add to that a growing injury list including the influential Diego and the task of beating Madrid to keep their hopes alive looks a bit more daunting. Madrid are capable of winning against anyone but do sometimes struggle on the road. Rather than try to pick a winner I’m more interested in the Total Goals market, where I think Over 2.5 looks a good bet. Both teams have plenty of goals in them as has most of the fixtures in this group so far. It should be an entertaining, open game. Bet Over 2.5 goals at 4/6 with BetFred or BlueSq.

Finally, in Group D, AC Milan can secure qualification with a point or more in Lisbon against Benfica, whilst Celtic need to win at least 2-0 to almost guarantee their passage into the last 16. Holders Milan’s only blemish in campaign so far was a 2-1 defeat at Celtic Park, when they fell to a last minute Scott McDonald strike but they are a team very capable of going away and getting a draw if need be. The Stadium of Light was far from intimidating when I visited it last month (although Benfica did manage a 1-0 win) and I can see Milan doing enough tonight to make it through. 9/4 (BetFred, Ladbrokes, totesport) on the draw has some appeal. Or why not consider abet on the Odd/Even Total Goals market, where an even number of goals is 9/10 at Bet365. Sure its a shorter price but it still gives you a second chance if the game doesn’t go as expected.

It should be another cracking European night at Celtic Park tonight again. The whole qualification permutations are a bit complicated so I won’t bother going into it, but suffice to say that a Shakhtar win just about puts them through, whereas a 2-0 win should be enough for Celtic (assuming other results go to form). The fans will be taking calculators rather than radios with them tonight. So can Celtic do it? Their home form in the Champions League says they can. Just one defeat in 14 Champions League games in Glasgow is an envious record and they will be confident of extending that tonight. But they will be wary of a Shakhtar team that simply blew them away in the first 20 minutes of the game in Donetsk on Matchday 1. Since then, Shakhtar’s form has dipped somewhat and they have seen healthy lead in the Ukraine League whittled done to just one point. Many feel that this is a good time to be playing the Ukrainian champions. Gordon Strachan has an almost full squad to choose, although arguably two of Celtic’s most influential players at this level are doubts. Artur Boruc should make but Shunsuke Nakamura is very doubtful. Nevertheless, the points are there to be won by Celtic and I think they’ll do it. It wouldn’t surprise me if it was by a single goal (1-0 is 13/2 at Canbet) but I’ll be adding the home win to my accumulator. The best price for this is 10/11 with most bookies but if you look at the Asian Handicap (Celtic at -0.5) market you’ll get a better price of 19/20 at Bet365, Canbet or VCBet for what is effectively the exact same bet.