UEFA Champions League Betting Preview – Matchday 5, Tuesday 27th Nov

We’ve reached the stage where we need to tread carefully when betting on Champions League matches. Teams that have already qualified will be fielding weakened teams as they seek to rest weary legs.

Take Barcelona for example, both Oleguer and Henry miss the trip to Lyon this week, for a game in which they don’t need to win, as they are already through to the last 16. Graham Hunter on Talksport this morning claimed that Rijkaard doesn’t think Henry and Ronaldinho can play together, but I’m sure if Barca needed 3 points then they’d both be there. So our first opportunity of the evening might be in France where Lyon must beat Barcelona in order to keep qualification within their own reach. Lyon sit on top of Ligue 1 in France and haven’t been in particularly bad form of late with their only recent blip being a 2-1 home defeat to Marseille. Lyon are confident of sealing the two wins that would seal their passage to the last 16 but a lot will depend on which Barcelona team turns up. On their day they are head and shoulders above anything else in the competition but if they’re not firing on all cylinders they are very beatable. The betting market makes Lyon slight favourites and I think the 13/8 at Skybet, Stan James and totesport doesn’t represent good value. Personally I prefer the 10/11 on Lyon at Boylesports on the Draw No Bet market, which makes sure you get your money back should the game end up all-square.

The result in Lyon will have a massive impact on Rangers campaign. If they can win in Stuttgart and Barcelona defeat Lyon then it will be the Gers who have sealed qualification with a game to spare. Sounds easy huh? But, the Stuttgart that Rangers will take on tonight is vastly different to the one they faced on Matchday 1. The personnel may be similar but confidence is high and they have begun their ascent up the table with 4 back-to-back victories in the Bundesliga, most notably a 3-1 win at home to title favourites Bayern a fortnight ago. Team news isn’t great for Stuttgart with Basturk still out and Gomez (who scored at Ibrox) a doubt following the weekend’s fixtures. Both will be sorely missed. Rangers on the other hand have a nearly full squad with only Nacho Novo being the notable absentee. No doubt Walter Smith will set out to frustrate the Germans and try to nick something on the break, which they did so successfully in Lyon, so it might be quite a tight affair. However, I think Stuttgart owe their fans and will be determined to record at least one victory in this campaign and it will come tonight. At the bookies their price is getting shorter and shorter so I’d get on the 5/4 at Paddy Power asap.

In Group F Manchester United are already through and although the team will be understrength tonight they should still see off Sporting and end their qualification hopes. At a best price of 8/13 at totesport they’re too short for me to get involved. In the other game in the group Roma travel to Kiev, where a draw will be enough to clinch second spot. I expect they’ll manage it.

Seville v Arsenal should, on paper, be a cracker. Both teams like to get the ball down and play football. A quick look at the group table suggests a draw might suit both teams so I’m not sure just how much attacking will be done. Arsene Wenger will be without a few key personnel so Seville may well just shade it. Its too close to call for me so I’m leaving this one. The other game in the group sees Steaua host Slavia in a fairly meaningless match. If Slavia avoid defeat they’ll qualify for the UEFA Cup but in game like this I’d be more tempted to go for the home win. Steaua are bets priced at 6/5 to win at Boylesports.

PSV still have an outside hope of qualification but need  to pick up all 3 points away at CSKA Moscow. Its a tricky trip in what will be freezing conditions in Russia. Again, I couldn’t say which way this one will go. Meanwhile Inter host Fenerbahce, where a win for either team will be enough tonight. No bet for me.

In summary, the two games that make most appeal are Lyon to win (Draw No Bet) at 10/11 Boylesports and Stuttgart to defeat Rangers at 5/4 with Paddy Power.

Selectabet Offers:

• Open an account at Bet365 and claim £100 in free bets
• Open an account at Betfair and claim £25 in free bets
• Open an account at Paddy Power and claim £25 in free bets