I was all set to continue my winning streak yesterday. 3 games, said ‘The System’, should all finish over 2.5 goals. But for some reason I wasn’t convinced. I checked the recent form, I checked the entire league’s form, I checked the historical games between the sides - eventually I decided that it would be a no bet day.

And am I glad I did. None of them finished with any more than 2 goals - one was a 0-0 draw. So I’m feeling kinda lucky. It was a bump back down to earth that ‘The System’ is not infallible - which I knew it wasn’t - and I’m glad I didn’t get carried away after winning 4 on the trot by betting for the sake of it.

It seems it’s going to be as important to know when NOT to be bet as well as when to bet.

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August 19th, 2008
Categories: Free Bets, General Posts, Tipsters, UK Bookmakers, betting, fixed odds, football, £20000 Challenge . Author: selectabet . Comments: No Comments

England v Czech Republic - Live on Setanta Sports 1. Kick Off 8pm

First things first… I hate friendlies. Next… I don’t like International football that much. So… you can guess that I don’t like betting on International Friendlies. But lets try to pick through the betting opportunities for this one anyway.

Fabio Capello takes charge of his fifth match as English boss against the Czech Republic at Wembley. His 23-man squad raised a few eyebrows, particularly in the striking department where Emile Heskey won a recall ahead of Dean Ashton, Darren Bent, Peter Crouch and Gabriel Agbonlahor who netted a hat-trick for Villa yesterday. With just 5 goals in 45 appearances in an England shirt I doubt too many fans will be rushing to take Skybet’s 8/1 on him netting first.

It’s Jermaine Defoe (6/1 Bet 365, BlueSq, Ladbrokes, Paddy Power, Skybet) and Wayne Rooney (6/1 Paddy Power, Sportingbet) who head the first goal scorer betting but I wouldn’t be diving in to either of those, especially not Rooney who has netted just 4 goals in the last 3 years for England.

The Czechs are ranked six places above England at 8th in the world so should provide a good test for Capello’s men. New national coach Petr Rada has named an 18-man squad but will have to make do without Arsenal’s Tomas Rosicky for this one. A Czech win is 9/2 (Bet 365) which I think is on the generous side.

Both teams look light on goals scorers to me and I think that might provide the best route to profit. Rada has named just four strikers and the England strike-force have been a bit goal-shy of late so the 13/20 (Bet 365) on there being under 2.5 goals looks a good option.

On a similar vein you can have 6/4 on England winning to nil at Paddy Power or an even more enticing 13/2 (Paddy Power) on the Czech’s winning the game without losing a goal.

Whatever you’re betting on, good luck but beware the unpredictability of International friendlies.

Selected Odds
England	4/6	4/6	8/13	7/10	5/6	7/10
Draw	5/2	23/10	9/4	12/5	9/4	23/10
Czech Republic	9/2	4/1	4/1	4/1	4/1	10/3

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August 18th, 2008
Categories: Free Bets, Tipsters, UK Bookmakers, betting, fixed odds, football . Author: selectabet . Comments: No Comments

I’m trying not to get too excited but I’ve made a cracking start to the challenge. I’ve had a bit of luck if truth be told so let’s hope it continues.

So far I’ve only bet on 3 games to finish Over 2.5 goals. Each of them have, but only just! They’ve all finished with just 3 goals so it’s been a bit ’sqeaky’ at times. I could do with a less nerve-wracking one tonight.

I’m staying in the Nordic countries and this time it’s Iceland I’m looking to. There’ three games tomight that look like prime candidates for a few goals; IBV Kelfavik versus Throttur Reykjavik, FH Hafnarfjordur versus UMF Grindavik and Valur versus HK Kopavogur.

The biggest decision is which one to go for? I’ve tried to translate a few Icelandic websites for a bit more info but it’s still all gobbledigook so I’ll have to rely on ‘The System’ again and hope that I’ve picked the right one…

Keflavik v Throttur seemed to be drawing me in more than the other two so it’s that one that half my stake is going on tonight. Fingers crossed!

Selection: Keflavik v Throttur - Over 2.5 goals. £207.03 @ 1.5 with Centrebet

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August 17th, 2008
Categories: Bets, Free Bets, Tipsters, UK Bookmakers, betting, fixed odds, football, £20000 Challenge . Author: selectabet . Comments: 4 Comments

So far so good as far a the challenge goes. Yesterday’s game was a bit of a nerve-shredder - you’ve no idea ho hard it is to find out the live score of game in the Finnish lower leagues. But anyway, all was fine in the end and a 3-0 win was good enough to land the bet. That made it 2 out of 2 and moved the balance on to £318.50. Nice one.

Today I’ve a choice of 8 games according to ‘The System’ but I’ve had to rule 3 games out because I can only get a bet on over 3.5 goals and not the 2.5 that the system is based on. There’s a couple that kick off at 4pm so I’ve looked at those first and it’s back into the Norwegian First Division we go and our friends from last week Konsvinger who visit Nybersgund today.

Between them their games this season have averaged 3.42 goals per game - thats 123 goals in 36 games so it’s fair to expect a few today again. Konsvinger of course lost 3-0 at home last week to Moss and hopefully they’ll ship a few to 10th place Nybergsund.

The best odds are at Expekt again and are 1.60. My stake is now up to £159.25. Fingers crossed for a goals fest.

Selection: Nybersgund v Konsvinger - Over 2.5 goals. £159.25 @ 1.60 with Expekt.

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August 17th, 2008
Categories: Bets, Free Bets, Tipsters, UK Bookmakers, betting, fixed odds, football, £20000 Challenge . Author: selectabet . Comments: 3 Comments

Chelsea v Portsmouth - Live on Sky Sports 1. Kick Off 1.30pm

The Phil Scolari era kicks off today at Stamford Bridge as Chelsea host the FA Cup holders, Portsmouth in a game that’s live on Sky Sports 1.

With injuries to Drogba and Shevchenko and with Kalou at the Olypmics, the Blues will be going in with Anelka playing the lone striker role up front. Deco will make his Premier League debut and it will be interesting to see how Scolari accommodates him in a midfield along with Lampard and Ballack.

Pompey boss Harry Redknapp still feels he’s 3 players short of where he wants to be. But he’ll pair Defoe and Crouch up front for the first time in the Premier League as they try to win at Chelsea for the first time in 53 years. Elsewhere he’s lost the likes of Muntari and Mendes from his midfield without being able to replace them with the same quality and it’ll be tough going against the quality the Blues have in that department.

On the betting front it looks like Chelsea will extend their phenomenal 82 match unbeaten home record and get the season off to a winning start. Paddy Power offer the biggest price at 4/11 on a home win and that’s a license to print money if you ask me. Anyone brave enough - or daft enough - to back Pompey can have upto 11/1 at Bet Direct, Boylesports or Stan James.

But the best value looks to be in the Over / Under market. I know it’s a new season but if you look at how last term finished for these two sides I wouldn’t expect too many goals in this one. In Chelsea’s last 10 games of season 2007/08 only one game finished with more than 2 goals. Those 10 games accumulated just 20 goals. Portsmouth’s last 10 competitive games yielded even less goals - just 11, with Pompey only scoring 4 of them. Chelsea’s lack of striking options also suggests that goals might be a bit difficult to come by against a sturdy Portsmouth defence.

Under 2.5 goals isn’t a bad price either with Canbet and Ladbrokes both going 43/50. Get on it.

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August 17th, 2008
Categories: Free Bets, Tipsters, UK Bookmakers, betting, fixed odds, football . Author: selectabet . Comments: No Comments

Dundee Utd v Celtic - Live on Setanta Sports 1. Kick Off 2pm

Just three months after securing their third title in a row at Tannadice, Gordon Strachan’s men return to the scene of their title-winning victory for the second game of the season looking to go top of the league.

Despite a 1-0 win over St. Mirren last week the Hoops performance was below par and they’ll need to step up a gear against Craig Levein’s organised side. Strachan will be pleased to have Shunsuke Nakamura back in the ranks for the trip and the Japanese has a good record against the Arabs. He’s 12/5 (888 Sport, BlueSq) to mark his return with a goal against a team he loves scoring against.

Chances are that Nakamura won’t start the game though and it will be former United player, Barry Robson who starts on the right for the Bhoys. After scoring from the spot last week he’s a very tempting 9/2 (Paddy Power) to net tomorrow.

United usually make it tough for the two Glasgow giants at home but Celtic have a great record against them and haven’t conceded a goal in the last four meetings. Tannadice has been a profitable hunting ground for Celtic and it’s no wonder the bookies have them at a best price of 8/13 (Ladbrokes, VCBet) to win it. United are 11/2 (VCBet) to upset the form book and nick a win. I can’t see anything other than a Celtic win but it will be tight.

A 2-1 win for the Hoops looks the most likely utcome to me and it’s a best 8/1 at BetInternet.

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